Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The test of the price at 1.1845 coincided with the MACD indicator being significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

The spike in dollar buying activity was driven by the positive data from the ISM Manufacturing Index, which surpassed the 50 threshold. Market participants interpreted this as a sign of potential economic recovery. However, the pair's future dynamics will be determined by incoming data from the Eurozone and statements from Federal Reserve representatives, making the situation highly volatile and requiring close monitoring by traders.

Particular attention will be paid to the consumer price index data from France. If the actual figures significantly exceed forecasts, this could strengthen expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy from the European Central Bank, which would theoretically support the euro. The publication of unemployment figures in Spain is not the most critical indicator, but a substantial reduction in unemployment could signal a recovery in the Spanish economy, which would support the euro. Conversely, an increase in unemployment could raise concerns about the sustainability of the country's economic growth. In addition to these two key indicators, market participants will also closely monitor statements from ECB representatives.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, buying euros is possible when the price reaches around 1.1824 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1849. At point 1.1849, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the other direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after strong data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from it.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1801 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1824 and 1.1849.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the level of 1.1801 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1778, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1824 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1801 and 1.1778.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.