Talk of further declines is growing in the market. As of yesterday, Bitcoin still traded below $84,000 and Ether around $2,500. Many market participants believe crypto has lost capital inflows while equities keep rising on strong corporate profits. Money that flowed into crypto over the summer now prefers stocks, which explains why even good industry news doesn't produce a sustained price rally.

The flows picture confirms this. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have lost about $451 million since early October, and last week funds covering Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana together saw roughly $1.25 billion in outflows. Ether funds recorded nine consecutive trading days of outflows totaling $697.2 million, and Solana funds ended a record 14-week inflow streak. At the same time, the earnings season that started this week is supporting stock indices, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 trading near record highs.

Market participants say two conditions are needed for a sustainable recovery. First: long-term US government bond yields must decline and stabilize. Thirty-year yields reached 5.70% last week — the highest since 2002 — and ten-year yields hit 5.35%; as long as yields rise, non-yielding assets remain under pressure. Second: a return of net inflows into spot crypto ETFs, because institutional demand primarily comes through those vehicles. Neither condition is met yet, and to me that is the main argument for caution.

The practical takeaway: until these conditions are satisfied, it is better not to buy altcoins on short-term dips. They have lower liquidity, fall harder than Bitcoin, and Ether has additionally lost support from corporate buyers. Past bounces show sellers quickly buy out moves without flow confirmation, and today's quiet trading around $83,000 is just a lull ahead of US inflation data.

At the same time, the long-term outlook remains positive: market participants believe the current cycle is still in an early stage. Other signals support this view. Saylor has declared the bull market has already begun, and JPMorgan analysts estimate roughly $50 billion of inflows into digital assets YTD and point to a positive impulse for Q4. I wouldn't pit these views against caution—they reflect different horizons. In the coming weeks, macro data and flows will dominate, while over the year bulls have more arguments.

My base scenario: while bond yields remain near highs and ETFs don't return to inflows, Bitcoin will trade in a range with a risk of returning to $81,000, and Ether will underperform. Soft US inflation today would stop the pressure and create conditions for initial fund inflows; a strong print would bolster Federal Reserve-hike bets and open the way to further losses. I would treat the first confirmation of a reversal not as a price bounce alone, but as at least two consecutive days of net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, along with a halt in rising yields.

For Bitcoin, the price trades in a narrow range between support 83,300 and resistance 83,600, outer bounds 82,800 and 84,100, and the plan is built around two mirror directions with full breakout and rejection scenarios. There are two entries for buying. First, a confirmed breakout above 83,600: buy with a target at 84,100, where I take profit and consider a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Second, a rebound off 83,300 if the downside breakout is unconfirmed and the drop proves false: buy with a return first to 83,600, then to 84,100.

Sales are symmetric. On a confirmed break below 83,300, consider a short targeting 82,800, provided the moving average is above price and Awesome is below zero. If the breakout above 83,600 fails and price returns below the level, short from resistance with a return to 83,300 and then to 82,800.

For Ether, the logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale: inner range between support 2,496 and resistance 2,511, outer bounds 2,478 and 2,529. Buy on a confirmed breakout above 2,511, targeting 2,529, where I take profit and consider a short position on the pullback; the same conditions apply: price above the 50-day moving average and Awesome above zero. Buy on a rebound off 2,496; if the downside breakout is unconfirmed, go first to 2,511, then to 2,529.

For selling, a confirmed break below 2,496 opens a short targeting 2,478, provided the moving average is above price and Awesome is below zero. A rebound from 2,511, when the upside breakout fails, gives a short with a return to 2,496 and then to 2,478. Use both indicators as filters to cut false moves rather than standalone reasons to enter early; make decisions only after price confirms the specified levels.